Brekkie Crumbs - Notes from the NewsRadio Breakfast team (Wednesday)
Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009Marius - Politics
There are no certainties in politics any more than there are in daily life.
But there are likelihoods, and at times even extreme likelihoods.
As things stand, it is extremely likely that Kevin Rudd will win the next election.
Bookies are a remarkably good guide to the reality of the political outlook.
At the moment, they are inviting you to bet on the federal elections. Put your one dollar on Labor and, if they win, you’ll get $1.35 back.
That means the bookies rate Labor’s chances of winning at 74%.
Bet that one dollar on the Coalition and if they win, you’ll get $3.00.
In other words, they rate the Coalition as a one-in-three chance - and bookies are seldom wrong.
Speaking to News Ltd’s Glenn Milne last week, he mentioned that he had been dining with a shadow minister the night before, when the electoral outlook came under discussion.
The un-named frontbencher had written off the next vote - early or full term, Labor wins - and that is pretty much the universal view in political circles.
Saving the furniture is the main game in the Coalition household - and deciding what comes next, specifically who leads next after the coming defeat.
That’s the next agenda item for the realist-pessimist axis in the Coalition. In the meantime they might be tempted to put a few dollars on a Labor win at the next federal poll.
The odds aren’t good but the result, in the view of most, is assured.
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Mark - Breakfast EP:
Good grief!
Spring has sprung…and with a vengeance.
Cricket-ball sized hailstones in Crookwell, earthquakes in the ‘burbs of Melbourne, nasty fires in Queensland, gale force winds and huge dust storms originating in South Australia and inundating Sydney, Canberra, Broken Hill and large parts of New South Wales.
I did a couple of live ‘crosses’ to Glen during the Breakfast program, describing the situation in Sydney.
Amazing stuff. An eerie red glow, appalling visibility, ferries stopped, airport at a standstill…and fine reddish-brown dust everywhere.
(I was thinking of a holiday to outback South Australia…I didn’t think outback South Australia would come to me!)
Check out some of the photos my colleagues and I took this morning from the ABC building.
Even our international partners at CNN couldn’t believe the pictures they were seeing and rang me for an on-air chat.
There hasn’t been a dust storm like this in Sydney in 70 years.
But for me it was a case of deja vu.
(No, I’m not over 70!)
But 26 years ago I was walking home from school in Melbourne on a stinking hot afternoon with a couple of mates when I looked up at the sky.
To the south, it was clear and sunny.
To the north loomed an enormous grey cloud — a grey cloud that was travelling very, very fast towards us…..
And then it went dark.
Streetlights went on, we were coughing and spluttering, and visibility was suddenly down to about 20 meters.
We dashed into the closest building…which happened to be a 7-11.
“Geez….I think the world’s ending!” said a mate of mine.
“At least we can have a cold Slurpee before we die!”, remarked another.
Twenty minutes later, we emerged from the shop.
And Melbourne was covered in fine, reddish-brown dust, and the temperature had dropped about 20 degrees.
You’ve probably seen the famous vision of that 1983 dust storm rolling across Port Phillip Bay.
It was shot on 16 millimeter film by ABC newsreader Graham Evans, who lived in a high-rise block near St. Kilda beach.
He saw the great big cloud coming from the north, realised something was up, and grabbed his camera.
Years later, he told me that he still rubbed his hands with glee everytime that vision was shown on television….as it meant another royalty payment.
Speaking of St. Kilda….Go Sainters! (It’s about time…)
