About

Marius - Politics …

One of the disappointments of political journalism is that some of the most interesting things said by politicians are in private and not for publication.

This morning, Friday morning, I spoke to some Liberals on air about the rockslide that is Liberal politics this week. Wilson Tuckey was in characteristic boulder-tossing mood. He’s been giving ever blunter assessments of Malcolm Turnbull over the past week or more.

Another interview was with the Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz, who was engaged in that most difficult art of trying to preserve and even improve your position in the midst of a rockslide.

But the most interesting conversation was with a veteran Liberal Senator who will remain nameless. If that anonymity was not preserved, my fate (he explained) would be very uncomfortable - something about a penknife.

He was not interested in talking on air, he said: “…that’s just a fast way to make a lot of lifetime enemies at a time like this……don’t need the publicity…leave that people like Cory Bernardi who want it.”

But in his unforthcoming way, he was very forthcoming.

Malcolm Turnbull, he said, was finished. He was saddened by the prospective loss of him as leader, but he felt that Turnbull had brought that fate down on himself to a significant extent, by not consulting enough and by not delaying the emissions trading bill.

As Turnbull was up against a group who are opposed to any ETS bill, a group that would like to see it delayed at least until hell freezes over, or both polar ice caps melt, whichever comes later, that is arguable.

But that argument has been had often enough in recent days.

“Will Turnbull stick around?” I asked.

“No, he’ll go…and he’s a loss.”

With another laughing reference to penknives and the fate that awaits journalist who reveal the sources of off-the-record conversations, the affable Senator rang off.

So if he’s right, the next stage of politics goes something like this…

Monday: Turnbull is rolled and Tony Abbott or Joe Hockey take over.

They get the job on the understanding they’ll back stalling the ETS bill. The Government then has grounds for an early election with climate change as the big issue.

Malcolm Turnbull said today that the Government would have to call that early poll - and, by general consensus, it’s not one the Opposition can win.

On that basis, we know Labor is in for a second term.

The only remaining questions are: will Malcolm Turnbull go immediately - thus forcing a by-election in his seat of Wentworth, a seat which is quite green and gay and generally ‘urban elite’ enough to perhaps turn on the Liberal Party that tossed out their local boy?

Beyond that, how long will the losing Liberal leader last after taking the party to the predicted resounding defeat?

Kevin Rudd already has a handsome array of Liberal scalps over the Lodge mantlepiece: Howard, Nelson and (presumably) Turnbull.

Bagging a fourth Liberal leader inside three years would make Kevin from Queensland the most formidable hunter the ALP has ever followed on its electoral safaris.