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December 10th, 2009

Marius - politics …

Surveys show that close to 80% of people now feel they don’t know enough about the Emissions Trading Scheme to make an informed decision about it.

This figure suggests that something like 20% of respondents are kidding themselves.

Climate change has been described by many as the hardest issue the political world has ever faced.

And it is the hardest on many levels.

Put aside those who think there is no problem with the planet warming and those who think no action can be enough or come soon enough.

Stay in the land of possible action and it still looks beyond hard.

The politics of trying to get nearly 200 sovereign States to gather in a Scandinavian conference hall and agree on anything is a task that beggars belief.

The preamble to any discussion in that room is an understanding of the science, a calculation of national self interest and an estimation of the competing lobby groups - the CO2 generators, the consumers who want power and want also to leave a planet that does not look like a charred chip.

So what do people do when faced with this universe of information that is beyond understanding?

They abandon reason in favour of emotion.

There is an instinctive reaction of some people to dislike “green” arguments and to be on the side of development. Nick Minchin spoke to that group when he told Four Corners the majority of Liberals did not believe in man-made climate change and that the climate change cause was energised by a leftist desire to de-industrialise the west.

On the other side, many people have an emotional attachment to green causes. A general sense is that the planet is being trashed and that it will be pretty much extinguished if a global population of 6.8 billion attempts to reach a first world level of material well being via the high-carbon path of industrial history.

In between those views is one most prominently - and to some most surprisingly - expressed by Rupert Murdoch, when he said whatever the details, on the evidence, the planet deserves the benefit of the doubt.

You can see how people arrive at positions like the above.

But that doesn’t really involve an understanding of the talmudic complexities of an ETS.

It doesn’t equip you to answer questions like:
What should the price per tonne of carbon pollution be?
What about the off-sets?
How about the CMD’s?
How do you monitor a world-wide trade in carbon credits?
Has ‘cap and trade’ worked in the EU?

Something like 20,000 people are now debating these and other issues for two weeks and they will produce an outcome. Good luck understanding it.

The only certainty is that whatever agreement is produced in Copenhagen, the world will agree to disagree.

___

Debbie - sport

Who would’ve thought I’d need a footnote* to yesterday’s piece about goalkeepers scoring in soccer so quickly?

As mentioned yesterday, after the Bayern Munich goalkeeper had scored from the penalty spot in his team’s European Champions League win over Juventus, the other situation where goalkeepers score occasionally is when it’s desperation time late in a game.

Well, that happened this morning in Belgium in another Champions League game when the home team Standard Liege were trailing 1-nil against AZ Alkmaar of the Netherlands.

They sent their goalkeeper, Sinan Bolat forward and he headed in for an equaliser FIVE minutes into added on time.

As it turned out, it wasn’t enough to get Liege into the last 16 of the Champions League, but it did earn them a place in the second tier competition, The Europa League (formerly the UEFA Cup).

Surely it would be a first to have two goalies scoring in the same round of the Champions League?

Also yesterday, I linked to footage of the legendary Colombian keeper, Rene Higuita’s outrageous “scorpion kick” save.

Here’s some more footage of him scoring from the penalty spot for Atletico Nacional against River Plate.

(Well worth checking out for the commentary alone!)
* is “footnotes” quite the right term when writing about goalkeepers? Or should it be “handnotes”, or “glovenotes”?

December 9th, 2009

Mark - Breakfast E.P.: …

Tony Abbott gives good copy.

What’s more, the former journo and press secretary knows it, too.

He was clearly enjoying himself on Lateline last night:

TONY JONES: You’ve got four or five former Howard Ministers in that Cabinet?

TONY ABBOTT: And why not make the most of the experience and the energy that those people have? What I wanted was a frontbench …

TONY JONES: Well, before you answer that, let me just throw something back at you. Paul Keating once called you a “young fogey”. I mean, you’ve done your reshuffle now, but are you at all worried that you’re gonna be regarded as a young fogey leading a bunch of old fogeys?

TONY ABBOTT: Well, if we win the election, I’ll be regarded as a genius. If we don’t win, I’ll probably be political roadkill at some point in time.

Indeed.

In a wide-ranging and often amusing interview, the two Tonys ranged over a number of topics - leadership, climate change and the Copenhagen Conference and why Kevin Rudd allegedly won’t appear on Lateline.

And there was this:

TONY JONES: Let’s go back a couple of steps. How much of an inspiration was John Howard in your decision to challenge for the Liberal leadership?

Tony Abbott was adamant it was his decision alone to go for the top job.

But the Opposition leader got more curiously more circumspect as the Tony Jones warmed to the topic:

TONY JONES: Did you tell him (John Howard) of your plan to dump the Emissions Trading Policy that he took to the last election?

TONY ABBOTT: Look, I think, Tony, that there are all sorts of conversations with all sorts of people. The important thing is …

TONY JONES: But that would be the most intriguing one, wouldn’t it, because you’ve relied on him to some degree as a political mentor?

TONY ABBOTT: Yes.

TONY JONES: You talked about being a weathervane, seeing the changes in politics; wouldn’t you go to your old mentor to sort of seek his advice on something as fundamental as this?

TONY ABBOTT: Well, I continue to have discussions with the former Prime Minister, and I think that anyone on our side of politics who wants to grow in wisdom does well to have discussions with him. But I didn’t want anyone else’s fingerprints, knowing that you would ask these sorts of questions and others like you would ask these sorts of questions, Tony, I didn’t want anyone to say that John Howard was still running the Liberal Party. And I didn’t want anyone to say that notwithstanding the very close relationship that I’ve had with John over the years that I am not my own man.

TONY JONES: Did he give you any advice at all on whether it was a good idea to drop the Emissions Trading Scheme that he took to the last election?

TONY ABBOTT: Well, you should ask him what he thinks about these things.

TONY JONES: But you’ve been quite happy to say no about other things and be vague about this one?

TONY ABBOTT: But his general view, Tony, and I don’t think I’m putting words into his mouth, is that he did what he thought was best in his time and it’s now up to us to do what we think best in our time.

TONY JONES: So he might, for example, believe the Emissions Trading Scheme is not a good thing politically for this time and have advised you such?

TONY ABBOTT: Well, I’m just not gonna go into what he might think about how the contemporary Liberal Party is handling things because he’s made it very clear that he isn’t gonna be a commentator on these events.

Well, a commentator in public, at least.

I just repeat what I said last week in this blog:

“Nothing of any consequence in the Liberal Party will happen without someone placing a call to John Howard…whether they be a “wet”, a “dry”, a “moderate” or a “conservative”.

He’s no “observer”.”

___

Debbie - Sport …

The Bayern Munich goalkeeper, Hans-Jorg Butt, will get plenty of headlines in sports sections around the world over the next day or two for doing something very unusual this morning.

He took, and converted, a penalty for his team in their 4-1 European Champions League win over Juventus in Turin.

It’s rare, although not unheard of for goalkeepers to score. Sometimes very late in a game when a team desperately needs to score the keeper will come up and get into the mix when his team is taking a corner. And sometimes it happens, as it did this morning, when the keeper is given the chance to take a penalty.

Recently, when we had Mark Bosnich as a guest on “Weekend Half Time”, I noticed that on his CV is a goal for the Socceroos. I checked it out and found it was a penalty that came in one of those goal-avalanche Oceania qualifiers against the Solomon Islands. His was one of 13 goals for the Australian team.

My local coffee shop in Sydney is frequented by a gaggle of soccer fans and I thought I’d test them out on that bit of Socceroo trivia. In return, my barista, Tony, told me about the former Colombian keeper, Rene Higuita, who was a regular spot-kick taker in internationals. Higuita, he said, was not only excellent with a penalty, but was also wont, on occasion, to dribble the ball upfield, taking on the defence.

But neither of those party tricks are what Higuita is most famous for. Tony directed me to go home and search on the internet for “Higuita scorpion kick”.

Maybe you’ve seen it before - but I hadn’t and, with due respect to Mr Butt’s efforts this morning, this is  truly is the most freakish act by a goalkeeper I’ve ever seen!

December 8th, 2009

Glen - Presenter …

Well, It’s the biggest police mobilisation ever in Norway to ensure the safety of a single person.

AFP reports more than 2000 police, including snipers and sniffer dog handlers, will be mobilised for the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo on Thursday honouring US President Barack Obama.

Part of the Norwegian capital’s normally-peaceful centre will be completely blocked off during the American leader’s visit. Snipers will be placed on roofs and manhole covers have already been sealed.

Between 2000 and 2500 police officers will be mobilised, most of whom will for the rare occasion carry weapons.

The Norwegian Government has earmarked 92 million kroner (10.9 million euros, $16 million) to cover security needs during Obama’s visit — more than 10 times the prize money awarded to the Peace Prize laureate.

Maybe Obama could give his prize money to the Secret Service, as it seems there’s a bit of work to do on Presidential security at home.

The Washington Post has published a 2003 Secret Service report that reveals the uninvited couple that recently sneaked into an exclusive State dinner at the White House join a lengthy list of similar security lapses.

The Secret Service — the branch in charge of the president’s security — have mistakenly seen at least 91 breaches of their checkpoints since 1980. (Hey, that’s only about 5 a year - what could possibly go wrong ??)

“This document reflects a proactive attempt to evaluate our security and obviously raises the awareness of uniformed division officers and agents about their jobs,” Secret Service spokesman Edwin Donovan said, according to the Post.

“We have to be concerned about the threats to our protectees at all times, whether at the White House or away from the White House.”

In one of the more bizarre lapses at the President’s heavily guarded mansion in Washington, an October 1982 breach known as “The Family Outing” saw a family of four in a minivan pull through the White House gates, after honking their horn at agents. ( “Coming through !”)

They were stopped as they approached the West Wing entrance.

In a more serious example, the report highlights a 1994 incident where a man fired 29 semi-automatic rifle rounds at the White House from outside the perimeter fence before he was confronted. (Just exercising his democratic right to bear arms, I guess)

Secret Service director Mark Sullivan accepted responsibility for the gate-crashed State dinner fiasco at a Congressional hearing last week.

Socialites Tareq and Michaele Salahi got past several checkpoints and into the White House, where they shook hands with Obama and mingled with top-level officials at the November 24 dinner honouring visiting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Sullivan insisted security procedures were followed “without incident” for the other 1.2 million visitors to the White House in 2009, but acknowledged his service needed a “100 percent” security standard.

Apparently the 2003 report was used to train agents.

I think there might be a little more training required.

Maybe a field trip to Norway ?

___

Marius - Politics

One of the more interesting perspectives on our age of celebrity is that of the TV make-up artist.

These are the women (are there any men?) who powder and puff and pack faces, to allow them to look less flawed in the unpitying glare of studio lights.

They are there before the appearance, to dust away the human imperfections.

And they are there at the end with a hot towel.

For the stars, make-up is an elaborate procedure; for people in the news, it is a more cursory dust-over.

And for politicians, it is an enforced moment of stillness in their whirling-dervish lives.

They have to sit, and they can’t do much as they endure a moment of mild physical intimacy - and their response is instructive.

Recently, I asked for some assessments of the great and powerful from these women who see them more closely than almost anyone.

Here are some assessments from those who wield the powder brush.

John Howard…..”Used to be quite chatty, but became quieter and grumpier the longer he was in power.”

Julia Gillard….”She’s really nice.”

Bob Brown…”Very nice, too”

Malcolm Turnbull……”No communication…doesn’t know you’re there….no ‘please’ or ‘thank you.’”

Kevin Rudd…”He used to be quite chatty…always wanted to know what the punters were thinking…he’s pretty quiet now, but he might just be tired.”

A general pattern seemed to emerge that people became less considerate, less inclined to small talk and small courtesies, the greater their power and the longer in office.

But there are clearly exceptions to that rule.

It is unfair to judge anyone by this standard, but as the ABC’s correspondent in South Africa in the mid-1990s, I had the great good fortune to see Nelson Mandela as he campaigned to win that country’s first democratic election, and then as President.

Nelson Mandela was always a complete gentleman.

He would introduce himself to every person in a room, regardless of whether they were a national leader or a note taker. He would typically go out the back to meet kitchen staff or other support workers, giving them a handshake and a moment they would treasure for a lifetime.

Mandela was tough and shrewd and politically skilled, but always fantastically courteous.

He is a living reprimand to all of us when we are short with anyone.

And if you are dismissive of a make-up artist in particular - beware.

They are watching closely.

December 7th, 2009

Debbie - Sport …

Headlines about a “horror” draw for the Socceroos at next year’s World Cup in South Africa amused me over the weekend.

Sure, we have to play Germany - but given we were always going to have a seeded team in our group, I’m not sure why this should be seen as some sort of cruel, unexpected obstacle in our path.

Last World Cup, we had Brazil in our group, a bit scarier a prospect than Germany, I think.

Serbia, also in our group, are currently ranked just one place ahead of us in the FIFA world rankings. And Ghana are 37 on the world standings, compared to the Socceroos 21.

A “horror” draw would’ve been to get one of the two unseeded heavyweights, France or Portugal, as well as the favourites Spain or the defending champions Italy. Or Brazil again.

But really, gasping at the prospect of having Germany, Serbia and Ghana to deal with first up at a World Cup is a bit like reaching the semi-finals at Wimbledon and being stunned to find you’ve got to face Andy Roddick or Novak Djokovic.

Or getting selected to open the batting for Australia and being amazed to find someone intends to bowl a cricket ball at you at more than 150k an hour.

It’s not a horror turn of events.

It’s what you’re in it for.

___

Mark - Breakfast E.P.

You’d think that after a week’s worth of information from all around the globe, I’d turn off my radio on the weekends…or at least listen to something other than ABC Newsradio.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Our weekend line up is truly terrific.

I usually try and catch Scott Wales and Debbie Spillane talking all things sporting on “Weekend Half Time”.

The radio repeat of “Insiders” is required listening at 11am ADST on Sundays (particularly if you sleep in and miss the version on the box!)

I also love dipping in and out during the day….getting the best of the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Nederlands, plus all the news and sport from around Australia and the world.

And then occasionally I hear something that is so terrific that it takes your breath away.

Like yesterday’s “Assignment” program from the BBC World Service.

I’ve always been a fan of BBC correspondent Allan Little’s work, but his program on the legacy of Bhopal - the world’s worst industrial accident - is truly shocking.

It makes you want to scream at the radio about how unfair the world is for some people - particularly those who are poor, sick and marginalised, and are no match for multi-national companies with teams of suited lawyers who aren’t worried about morality, or governments that promise to help. And then don’t.

It should be required listening for anyone who works in the area of so-called “Corporate Social Responsibility”.

If you missed it, you can hear it on the web:

On another point:

In last Friday’s blog about NSW politics, I got a bit confused about the timeline of my Grandpa’s journalism career.

An email from my Mum (an avid reader!) soon straightened things out.

Apparently Alan Hill came back from the war, then went off to Tenterfield to edit and manage “The Star” for Rural Newspapers, before returning to Sydney as State Political Roundsman for the Daily Mirror, NOT the Telegraph as I had claimed.

He left Macquaire Street in the early ‘50s, when he came into some money from his father’s estate.

Grandpa bought the Harden-Murrumburrah Express and headed back to the country.

Not only was he the editor, chief reporter, publisher and owner of that esteemed publication on the NSW south-western slopes, he was also the Harden-Murrumburrah correspondent for 2LF - the radio station at Young.

You’ll be pleased to know the Express is still going strong.

It’s now owned by Fairfax:

http://www.hardenexpress.com.au/

And a final thought….

We went to a local Asian eatery last night to celebrate my son’s 12th birthday.

At the end of the meal, he opened his fortune cookie to reveal the profound message inside.

He rolled his eyes and groaned.

“What’s it say?” I said.

He handed it to me.

“The fortune you seek is in another cookie.”

December 4th, 2009

Mark - Breakfast E.P.: …

NewsRadio’s Steve Chase walked the corridors of Macquarie Street for 13 years between 1988 and 2001 as ABC Radio News’ State Political reporter. He wrote a colourful book about his time there called “You Didn’t Get It From Me”.

Steve dogged three Premiers during his time: Nick Griener, John Fahey and Bob Carr.

NewsRadio Breakfast’s Marius Benson was based in the Daily Telegraph Bureau at the New South Wales State Parliament for several years from the mid 70’s - incidentally when one of his press gallery colleagues was an ambitious young mover-and-shaker called Malcolm Turnbull.

Eric Willis and Neville Wran were the Premiers then.

My grandpa, Alan Hill, was the Telegraph’s State Political roundsman in the years after the war.

He charted the careers of Labor’s Bill McKell and James McGirr before heading off to Tenterfield in the state’s north to edit the local paper, “The Star”.

All three of these seasoned journos saw plenty of political stoushes, backroom intrigues and scheming.

But nothing compares to the sheer political bastardry we’ve seen in the last few years in the NSW Labor Party….and probably best exemplified by the extraordinary events of yesterday.

Steve, Marius and Grandpa covered events at the “Bear Pit” for a combined total of more than 20 years.

They saw the rise and fall of seven Premiers.

In the last four years, there have been no less than four Labor Premiers in New South Wales, while the state has lurched from crisis to crisis.

Only one of those four Premiers has chosen the moment of his own departure.

That was Bob Carr, who quit ahead of what he apparently believed was an unwinnable 2007 state election.

A hapless Liberal opponent meant that Carr’s replacement, Morris Iemma, essentially won that poll by default.

Lauded by the ALP as its new saviour, Iemma was knifed by the party barely 18 months later over his first major reform — attempting to privatise the state electricity sector.

Such was the paucity of talent they saw around them, the factional bosses in the NSW Right who control the Parliamentary party chose someone from the Left — the relatively unknown Nathan Rees.

Then, less than 15 months later, angered that Mr. Rees had finally been given the power by the State ALP to put his own stamp on his administration by being able to pick his own Ministry, the warlords simply pulled the rug from underneath him.

Their answer?

Another relative unknown.

Kristina Keneally — the American-born Planning Minister probably best known to the public as the NSW Government spokeswoman for World Youth Day.

Recently, at Sydney’s Manly Beach, I spotted a mate of mine who worked in the Carr and Iemma Governments.

He was busy chasing his young son, so I didn’t yell out to him.

But I did notice that he no longer had the grey pall about him that he had when he worked for a Labor government preoccupied with internal fear and loathing, that is, in turn, widely loathed by the people of New South Wales.

Grandpa must be turning in his grave….

___

Marius - Politics

Most of us, when we walk into a crowded room, have our heads filled with thoughts like “hope I’m dressed right…is there a familiar face here…hope someone will talk to me..”

Leaders don’t think like that.

They walk into a room packed with people and think (a) I should be running this mob….and (b) who here is useful to me?

Malcolm Turnbull’s tendency to assume command was well demonstrated at his last couple of doorstops, when he confronted packs of microphone and camera-wielding journalists as he was on the slippery slope out of the Opposition leader’s office.

On both occasions, when lesser mortals would have been involved in trying to frame a coherent answer, Turnbull told journalists not only what to ask, but how to ask it then rehearsed them before insisting they then deliver their lines to his satisfaction.

Tony Abbott’s parents equally found in their son a quite startling willingness to take control. His father Dick Abbot has told The Australian that it was clear from an early age that Tony was destined for great things.

He recalls that when Tony was a young child: “A priest asked my wife: ‘What will Tony do with his life….She said: ‘Well , he’ll either be the Pope or Prime Minister.”

Leadership is an interesting quality. Like courage, it is morally neutral. Mandela was a natural leader and a man of courage, but so was Hitler.

Plato drew up a system of government which would see those who were best equipped, the philosopher-kings, put in the position of supreme power.

But that’s not how it works. Leadership belongs to those who want it enough.

Most of us are prepared to be Lance-Corporals of life. But there are those who have with them in the crib a Field Marshal’s baton.

Their fierce energies will drive them to the top so that one day they can stand in front of the world, enjoying the attention they have always wanted, needed.

They will say they are not there for their own ends, they are not interested in power and that they are now “humbled.”

They’re always humbled. The rest of us are periodically humiliated, only the genuinely powerful are “humbled.”

But you can’t blame them: they are slaves to a nature and/or early circumstance which has seen them destined from the first to achieve that one goal, to lead.

December 3rd, 2009

Glen - Breakfast presenter …

I hear whispers that the ABC may be screening The Colbert Report from the US Comedy Central cable channel next year. I hope so - ‘tis a great show.

In fact, the more I see of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show - where Stephen Colbert got his break - the more I understand why Jon Stewart’s long running program is the ‘news’ program of choice for many Americans - young & old. Its ‘fake news’ approach not only manages to highlight the lunacy of politics American-style and target the media’s often dubious frenzied tactics & practices, but also features a daily interview with influential people from all over the world. Recent editions have featured different members of the Obama cabinet, Vice President Joe Biden, Al Gore, and columnist Tom Friedman all calmly expounding on the challenges facing the US and the world. They were amusing, accessible exchanges that proved more educational than most so-called serious programs that often provide more heat than light. I’m always tempted to steal some of the interviews for replay on NewsRadio but sadly Comedy Central is not one of our partner networks.

By the way, I’ve noticed the key to Foxtel’s many new channels seems to be an increase in the repeating and rotation of many movies - if you miss something not only will it probably be coming up again soon, but may well be featured on another new channel in a few days. Not sure there is really that much new content there - just new delivery channels. I could certainly do without the lifestyle offerings like the ‘You’ channel cluttering up my program guide. To each his own, I suppose.

___

Mark - Breakfast E.P.

Glen read out a interesting bit of copy on air yesterday:

“Former Prime Minister John Howard has told ABC Online that he had spoken regularly with all three leadership contenders in the run-up to Tuesday’s Liberal leadership ballot.

Mr. Howard says that although he’s an “observer” and not a player, his goal “is to see the Liberal Party restored to government”.

“I’ve taken the approach that if anybody wants my advice, they can seek it and I’m happy to give it,” he said.

Mr. Howard says Tony Abbott is ‘articulate and energetic and I think he’ll make a very good fist of it’.”

Hang on…

Mr Howard spoke regularly to all three leadership contenders?

Okay, he and Tony Abbott pretty much sing from the same hymn-sheet.

After all Tony Abbott once described himself as “the ideological love child of John Howard and Bronwyn Bishop”.

Joe Hockey?

Well, John Howard’s always had a soft spot for the North Sydney MP, even though Big Joe’s an avowedly small “l” Liberal and John Howard a big “C” conservative.

But Malcolm Turnbull?

The man who once described John Howard as the Prime Minister “that broke Australia’s heart?”

You bet.

If anyone thought that after becoming only the second Prime Minister in this nation’s history to lose his seat at a general election that John Howard would do a Stanley Bruce and slink off to a quite life in the British House of Lords….think again.

The Liberal Party is John Winston Howard’s life.

Always has been, always will be.

Nothing of any consequence in the Liberal Party will happen without someone placing a call to John Howard…whether they be a “wet”, a “dry”, a “moderate” or a “conservative”.

He’s no “observer”.

You won’t hear John Howard publicly railing against alleged architectural crimes like Paul Keating, or promoting business links with China or advocating Australia take the world’s nuclear waste like the Silver Bodgie.

He’s got far more important things to do.

December 2nd, 2009

Glen - Breakfast presenter …

For one of the more ridiculous, if tragic stories of the week, go to:

http://www.news.com.au/world/former-miss-argentina-solange-magnano-dies-after-plastic-surgery/story-e6frfkyi-1225805577650

The dangers of the search for the perfect body - one to die for, perhaps.

Elsewhere, AFP reports :

A protester who presented himself as an Iraqi journalist in exile hurled a shoe at the colleague who, one year ago, found fame hurling his own footwear at then US president George W. Bush.

Television reporter Muntazer al-Zaidi was in Paris to promote his campaign for the “victims of the US occupation in Iraq” when a fellow Iraqi critic turned the tables on him, shouting: “Here’s another shoe for you.”

The thickset man with an Iraqi accent made a brief speech in Arabic during the question and answer session, defending US policy and accusing Zaidi of “working for dictatorship in Iraq,” before throwing his shoe.

Following the commotion, the news conference continued with Zaidi taking questions about his famous assault on Bush on December 14 last year, which was shown around the world and made him a hero in the Arab world.

Zaidi, a journalist for Iraq’s Al-Baghdadia television, threw his shoes at Bush during the US leader’s final visit to Iraq, protesting the six-year-old occupation with a cry of: “This is the farewell, kiss you dog.”

The 30-year-old member of Iraq’s Shiite majority was jailed for nine months and was flown out of Iraq by his employers shortly after he was freed.

Zaidi’s shock action was shown repeatedly around the world and made him an instant hero among Iraqis and others who felt that Arab honour had been violated by the US occupation of Iraq.

Some of those present applauded him, but several Arab reporters complained that while his protest was legitimate for an activist, a journalist should have behaved more professionally.

Zaidi was unrepentant, insisting that given the opportunity he would do the same again to Bush’s successor, US President Barack Obama “whatever the colour of his skin, his origin or his religion.”

Asked about the huge sums and even offers of marriage made by admirers during his jail term, Zaidi said he had asked his family to refuse all gifts “until I find a way that they can be passed on to the people of Iraq.”

Shoes for everyone perhaps ?

___

Marius - politics

In political coverage, there is reporting, there is analysis, there is comment - and then there is guessing.

The change at the top of the Liberal Party makes it a good time for guessing.

In broad terms, you would guess that the installation of Tony Abbot is the last change at the top before the next election.

When that election might be is now also guess work, because what sounded like a convincing promise not to go early from the PM is now in doubt, as the Opposition has directly rejected the ETS bill.

But we’ll guess the election won’t be very early, say after July, and the Abbott leadership will survive at least until then.

You can also guess with some confidence that the election will be won by Labor.

Tony Abbott’s election is a game changer, but history, logic and the bookies say Labor is pretty close to unbeatable.

The bookies, by the way, are lengthening the odds against the Liberals; last week, your one dollar on the Coalition would return $4.50 if they did win. That bet is now paying $5.15, if the Abbott underdogs get up.

So that’s the big picture, but within that frame many questions remain.

It is hard to see Abbott’s election not affecting the polls: he is not bland, he is not white bread, he polarises.

You would expect a honeymoon, so the only scheduled poll before the holiday season - that’s the Newspoll on Tuesday week - should see an uptick in Liberal fortunes, which now seem to be at their irreducible poll minimum.

Beyond that, the crystal ball becomes very cloudy.

If the polls are right, Tony Abbott is out of step with the general public on concern for climate change.

He is of the Right and will change the trajectory of the Liberal Party.

John Howard described himself as the most conservative leader the Liberals had had; Tony Abbott could give him a run for his money.

If that logic prevails, then after the honeymoon Abbott’s Liberals and the voters will part company and the Opposition’s fortunes will not improve, assuming they can’t get worse.

So here’s the next year in politics, at a guess…

2009 Dec - Abbott announces front bench includes Bronwyn Bishop and Kevin Andrews
World agrees on words, but not action on climate change
Newspoll, Liberal fortunes improve after the Abbott election

2010 Jan - Australia keeps winning cricket
Feb - Early election speculation grows as Labor maintains dominant poll lead
March - mini-scandal costs Government a second minister
April - mini-scandal costs Opposition shadow minister
May - easy Budget strengthens early election talk
June - Opposition slipping in polls after early Abbott honeymoon
July - Rudd calls double dissolution poll for August 14
Aug - Labor wins with increased majority - greens hold Senate balance
Sept - Hockey elected new opposition leader
Oct - Dec climate negotiations between government and Greens go on and on
That’s it, the psychic powers are flagging.

Keep this blog handy to confirm the impossibility of knowing the future.

December 1st, 2009

Mark - Breakfast E.P. …

When I first went to work at Parliament House in Canberra in the early 1990’s, a man called Tony Abbott was preparing to sign off as then Opposition leader John Hewson’s press secretary.

“You mean you haven’t encountered the ‘Mad Monk’?” my colleagues would ask.

A couple of years later, I moved to Sydney and finally got to meet the man himself.

I caught up with him in a car park in Forestville, where he seemed to be running his election campaign for the blue-ribbon seat of Warringah out of the boot of an old Rover.

I knew the encounter with the monarchist, former Rhodes scholar, boxer, a former journalist and seminarian would be interesting.

Tony Abbott didn’t strike me as “mad” at all.

He had a friendly, but businesslike approach, with voters.

He was realistic about the then plight of the coalition…languishing in opposition.

He had an affinity with the area….Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

“Gee, look at it. It’s God’s own country,” he sighed. (I’m sure he deliberately put the emphasis on God for effect - to see if a young journo like me would bite and file another “here’s the guy who nearly ended up a Catholic priest” story)

But it was extremely clear this was a man of steely ambition -a man who, even then, harboured ambitions to lead the Liberal Party.

I’m sure some of those who encountered Tony Abbott in student politics at Sydney University would say the same thing.

But over the years, despite the occasional gaffes and lack of sensitivity, and his penchant for subjecting the public to endless images of him in tight bike shorts or Speedos, Tony Abbott has actually been one of the best people on the centre-right side of politics at articulating a conservative view of the world.

You might not agree with him, but at least you know where he stands.

Or do you?

His critics would argue that he hasn’t always been consistent.

For example, the once staunch Howard loyalist - some would say apologist - is now only too ready to admit that mistakes were made during his hero’s long tenure at the top.

Malcolm Turnbull was also keen to point out how Mr. Abbott had dramatically shifted his position on the emissions trading scheme when he saw which way the wind was blowing.

Mr. Turnbull and Brendon Nelson before him weren’t always impressed by Tony Abbott’s apparent ill-discipline and his tendency to speak outside his portfolio.

The main thing about Tony Abbott is that he is not a slave to ideology.

Like John Howard, he is a total pragmatist.

And a political animal.

A true dry Australian Liberal.

In the tradition of Menzies and Howard.

Oh yeah, and Kevin Rudd.

___

Debbie - Breakfast sport

One of the most regular complaints we field here at ABC NewsRadio, at least about sports coverage, is our preference for using the term “soccer” when reporting on what most of the world refers to as “football.”

For some reason, a section of the audience seem to regard “soccer” as a derogatory term and take it as a slight on the sport each time they hear it.

As I’ve explained many times in emails and phone discussions over the years, the term is simply a well-established abbreviation of the title “Association football”, the official title of the sport, and the ABC recommends it simply for clarity.

Sure, if you say “football” overseas in most countries people will immediately think of the round ball game. But we’re broadcasting for a national Australian audience and if we say “football”, our audience (depending on where they are) will most likely think either Australian rules, rugby league, or maybe even rugby union. In the case of a story on radio especially, where there are no visual clues like in print media or television, it’s a bit silly to have listeners unsure what sport you’re talking about for the first 10-15 seconds of a 30 second story .

But if I say “soccer” there’s no doubt.

Even people who think of “soccer” as “football” understand the word. And obviously FIFA doesn’t think of the term as a negative one. Sepp Blatter was today attending a conference in Johannesburg of businesses from all around the world involved in the sport. Name of the conference? Soccerex 09.

Oh - and we do have a national team called “The Socceroos”.

Anyway, soccer, football, the world game, the round ball game, calcio … call it what you like, I bet you’ll get more information about it here on ABC NewsRadio than you will on any other major radio network.

So go with it, OK?

November 30th, 2009

Glen - Breakfast presenter …

Best not comment on what’s going on in politics at the moment.
God knows too many people have said too much already.
Only advice I’d give to whoever wins the Liberal leadership is: don’t get comfortable - it doesn’t appear to be a long term occupation anymore.

Elsewhere in news…

Nothing’s sacred.

The Vatican has warned Italy’s bishops against letting deserted churches be transformed into nightclubs.

Archbishop Gianfranco Ravasi, the Vatican’s new culture commissar, urged “the greatest caution” after announcing that Roman Catholic churches with few worshippers could be sold off.

He gave the example of a church in Hungary which was “transformed into a nightclub and where striptease took place on the altar.”

The archbishop, who is president of the Pontifical Council for Culture, said dwindling numbers of worshippers at some churches meant it now made sense to sell, or even destroy, the buildings.

“Faced with falling number of worshippers, a phenomenon which we are also unfortunately witnessing in the centre of Rome, churches without any artistic value and which need significant work can be sold or destroyed,” he told reporters.

Italian bishops’ groups would be responsible for deciding whether the sites should be sold, said Ravasi, adding each case would be separately assessed.

–

And speed kills…

Toyota says it will fix accelerator pedals on 3.8 million vehicles in the US, to prevent them from becoming stuck and leading to unintentional acceleration.

Toyota Motor Sales, the US division of the Japanese automaker, announced details of a major vehicle repair program.

Toyota issued a consumer safety advisory in late September on the potentially fatal defect of an unsecured or incompatible driver’s floor mat, which could cause the accelerator pedal to be trapped “in the wide open position.”

The company recalled the vehicles in early October, in what it said would be its largest recall to date in the US market.

This came after a fatal accident in California, involving an accelerator pedal entrapped in the floor mat of a Toyota vehicle.
–
Less than ideal, I’m sure you’ll agree.

___

Marius - Politics

The phrase “fear and loathing” is the most lasting gift of the American writer Hunter S. Thompson to political reporting.

It is now a cliché - but for the reason that it so precisely captures the febrile and paranoid sprit that periodically seizes the political world.

That spirit is abroad in Canberra today, percolating through the national capital in a heady mix of policy, personality, passion, treachery, ambition, mendacity and duplicity.

Wilson Tuckey has been the most open in his expression of loathing for Malcolm Turnbull in the dying days of his leadership; he has been enthusiastically stoking the fires of dissent for weeks.

His disregard for his leader has been expressed bluntly. Others have wrapped themselves in the mantle of policy, or made ennobling appeals to moral high ground, or protested they are doing the honourable thing.

Malcolm Turnbull has responded to his critics in almost equally blunt terms.

Well, there is a policy war going on, the soul and mind of the Liberal party is now a battleground. But mixed in with that war of ideas are the personal hopes of would-be leaders, the personal fiefdoms of power brokers - their dreams, aspirations, jealousies, resentments and, yes, fear and loathing.

Careers are riding on the outcome of the leadership battle.

It is a complex gathering of human strengths and vices, which a leader has to orchestrate into playing a single tune.

It hasn’t worked out that way for Malcolm Turnbull, who is now slumped over the conductor’s stand with an array of daggers in his back.

___

Mark - Breakfast EP

Occasionally you hear something so breathtakingly wrong it makes you want to scream at your radio.

I had one of those moments last Friday.

I’d actually taken the day off and was coming to the end of a really terrific long bushwalk (if you don’t count losing my way about three times because the paths weren’t marked and the tiny spider who wanted to burrow itself into my leg!).

Feeling a bit news-starved on what I knew was a tumultuous day for the Liberal leadership, I turned on my brand new portable digital radio (highly recommended, by the way) and tuned into the ABC Radio’s PM program, where I heard the commentator and climate sceptic Andrew Bolt say the following
ANDREW BOLT: I’m certainly seeing that it is insane that we are embarking on this massive tax that will hurt everyone, be followed by no other country, won’t achieve any cooling at all, and this after Tim Flannery himself, who’s Australia’s leading alarmist as you well know, Tim Flannery himself this week on ABC TV admitted that in fact the world was not warming, it was cooling, and it was doing so against what the climate change models on which Kevin Rudd is relying were predicting.

How on earth can we do this?

Don’t get me wrong. I really enjoy Andrew Bolt, especially when he’s doing battle (in the ideological sense) with David Marr on The Insiders.

And despite the often confected outrage, he writes well.

His piece on turning 50 is one of the finest pieces of writing I’ve read in a long time.
But he’s dead wrong about what Tim Flannery said on ABC TV.

Bolt was referring to Tim Flannery’s appearance on Lateline last Monday night.

I know, because we ran part of the interview (the bit which supposedly included the killer admission) on ABC NewsRadio early the next morning.
Professor Flannery was speaking to Tony Jones in his role as the Chairman of the Copenhagen Climate Council, a body which brings together scientists and business leaders from around the world to talk about climate change.

He was reacting to the story of the leaked emails to and from academics at the climatic research unit at the British University of East Anglia, some which appear to cast doubt on some of the mainstream scientific thinking about climate change.
TONY JONES: Are they (climate scientists who are members of the IPCC) right that cooling is occurring? I mean, 1998 was the hottest year, and there are many other of the hottest years since recorded history in that 10 year period. So are they right to say it’s cooling, or not?

TIM FLANNERY: We had a huge cooling event in Sydney between yesterday and today. The time scales are important. If you take too short a time scale, you won’t get a climate signal, you get a regional weather signal or whatever else. The scales that climate scientists use to look at the overall warming trend on the planet are century long, and on a century-long trend we are still warming. Sur,e for the last few years we’ve gone through a slight cooling trend, we saw it in the 1940’s the same sort of thing, but that does not negate the overall warming trend.

The last bit is really important:
“…for the last few years we’ve gone through a slight cooling trend, we saw it in the 1940’s the same sort of thing, but that does not negate the overall warming trend.”
You can see Tim Flannery is NOT saying:
“..whoops the theory isn’t working, the world is not warming, it’s actually cooling”, as Andrew Bolt said elsewhere in that PM interview.

And don’t worry, if Andrew Bolt gets misquoted and I find out, I’ll be the first person to correct the record.

November 27th, 2009

Marius - Politics …

One of the disappointments of political journalism is that some of the most interesting things said by politicians are in private and not for publication.

This morning, Friday morning, I spoke to some Liberals on air about the rockslide that is Liberal politics this week. Wilson Tuckey was in characteristic boulder-tossing mood. He’s been giving ever blunter assessments of Malcolm Turnbull over the past week or more.

Another interview was with the Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz, who was engaged in that most difficult art of trying to preserve and even improve your position in the midst of a rockslide.

But the most interesting conversation was with a veteran Liberal Senator who will remain nameless. If that anonymity was not preserved, my fate (he explained) would be very uncomfortable - something about a penknife.

He was not interested in talking on air, he said: “…that’s just a fast way to make a lot of lifetime enemies at a time like this……don’t need the publicity…leave that people like Cory Bernardi who want it.”

But in his unforthcoming way, he was very forthcoming.

Malcolm Turnbull, he said, was finished. He was saddened by the prospective loss of him as leader, but he felt that Turnbull had brought that fate down on himself to a significant extent, by not consulting enough and by not delaying the emissions trading bill.

As Turnbull was up against a group who are opposed to any ETS bill, a group that would like to see it delayed at least until hell freezes over, or both polar ice caps melt, whichever comes later, that is arguable.

But that argument has been had often enough in recent days.

“Will Turnbull stick around?” I asked.

“No, he’ll go…and he’s a loss.”

With another laughing reference to penknives and the fate that awaits journalist who reveal the sources of off-the-record conversations, the affable Senator rang off.

So if he’s right, the next stage of politics goes something like this…

Monday: Turnbull is rolled and Tony Abbott or Joe Hockey take over.

They get the job on the understanding they’ll back stalling the ETS bill. The Government then has grounds for an early election with climate change as the big issue.

Malcolm Turnbull said today that the Government would have to call that early poll - and, by general consensus, it’s not one the Opposition can win.

On that basis, we know Labor is in for a second term.

The only remaining questions are: will Malcolm Turnbull go immediately - thus forcing a by-election in his seat of Wentworth, a seat which is quite green and gay and generally ‘urban elite’ enough to perhaps turn on the Liberal Party that tossed out their local boy?

Beyond that, how long will the losing Liberal leader last after taking the party to the predicted resounding defeat?

Kevin Rudd already has a handsome array of Liberal scalps over the Lodge mantlepiece: Howard, Nelson and (presumably) Turnbull.

Bagging a fourth Liberal leader inside three years would make Kevin from Queensland the most formidable hunter the ALP has ever followed on its electoral safaris.